 People really loved the free video lecture we posted on Forecasting Techniques, so we thought we’d round it out and give you the complimentary Deep Dive video lecture on the topic. Get out your notes and highlighters!

## Forecasting Techniques Deep Dive

Welcome back Prof. B Douglas Clinton, CMA, CPA, of Northern Illinois University. Last time, he provided a thorough-but-quick rundown of common forecasting techniques used by Certified Management Accountants. This time, he devotes nearly 15 minutes to walking you through some examples and problems.

Roll tape …

Prof. Clinton does a great job walking us through several real-word examples of how to use common forecasting techniques.

## What You Need to Know for the CMA Exam

This Deep Dive and its broader lesson introduce some of the forecasting techniques that are commonly used in the creation of budgets. The focus is on expected value and joint probability along with the forecasting method most likely to be tested: regression. This lesson also covers additional forecasting tools, such as the cumulative average time learning model, and several time series analysis methods, including exponential smoothing. Monte Carlo analysis is also discussed.

After studying these lectures and their accompanying texts, slides and practice questions, you should be able to:

1. Explain the features of probability and expected value, and calculate the expected value of a particular outcome.
2. Explain the components of the regression equation, and calculate predicted forecast values using the regression equation.
3. Explain dispersion, correlation, and related terminology, including the correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r2 ).
4. Demonstrate an understanding of calculations and results under a cumulative-average-time learning model.
5. Demonstrate an understanding of moving averages, exponential smoothing, and other types of time series analysis using these methods.
6. Understand the definition of Monte Carlo analysis.

We hope this was helpful as you prepare for the upcoming CMA Exam.