Draghi’s Bazooka Is Not Enough

On Wednesday, March 2nd, 2016 I published a piece in Business Insider arguing there is large segment of unpriced risk that only the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Geneva is able to see. My argument then was there is extraordinary stress in the currency swap lines extended by central banks to other central banks, both large…

Alarm Bells: CMBS, OIS and Liquidity Spreads

As of January, manufacturing, industrial, and employment data all paint an increasingly bleak picture for economic growth in the United States. The winning trade for 2016 may be just to try and stay even. (Learning Objective: Explain how a country’s position in the economic growth life cycle, political risk, legal risk, and economic structure affect…

Free Caterpillars and Slaughtered Unicorns

Two significant events happened this week that the market has yet to fully price in. “NIRP” is rapidly becoming the acronym du jour alongside “QE” and “TARP”. NIRP stands for “negative interest rate policy”, and Japan is the latest country to see the writing on the way: global demand is on the verge of collapsing…

What’s Next After $20 Oil and the RMB Devaluation?

Yesterday (January 26, 2016) marked the first significant break from US equities trading in lock step with Chinese indices, even in the face of an overnight drop of over 6% on the Chinese Hang Seng index (Describe how equity correlations and correlation volatilities behave throughout various economic states [MR-8]). What most talking heads on CNBC…

Searching for Yield Ahead of a China Slowdown

It is no secret the Federal Reserve will be raising the Fed Funds rate through 2016. The short rate isn’t the only tool at the Fed’s disposal and it will likely begin large-scale reverse repos (Interest Rates [FMP–4]) as an additional tool to drain excess liquidity from the markets.

PMP Career Insight: Speaking Truth to Power as a Project Manager

Conflict, confrontation and power. What comes to mind when you read those words?